Labor’s confidence grows after WA election thumping

By Tom Rabe and Tom McIlroy for the Australian Financial Review

Labor MPs believe the Albanese government is within striking distance of holding all four federal seats in Western Australia it won from the Liberals at the last election, after the party delivered yet another thumping to the opposition at a state election over the weekend.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on Sunday lauded Premier Roger Cook’s disciplined campaign in helping to deliver Labor its second-biggest election victory and a third-successive term in government, after the Liberals failed to climb out of a deep electoral hole and make any substantial inroads across the state.

With more than 60 per cent of the vote counted on Sunday afternoon, WA Labor was expected to win more than 40 seats in the state’s 59-seat lower house.

The Liberals managed about an 11 per cent swing and won back some key seats in areas once considered party heartland, but failed to put a significant dent in WA Labor’s dominant position.

The result potentially condemns the WA Liberals to another eight years in opposition, having lost government in 2017 and being reduced to just two seats in a 2021 whitewash.

Cook said Saturday’s victory was a “vindication” of his government’s vision to utilise the state’s energy transition to support downstream processing and manufacturing jobs.

Several federal WA Labor MPs, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal party matters, said Saturday’s results had lifted spirits ahead of the federal election, where the party’s capacity to hold several Perth seats could be decisive to the result.

The seats of Tangney, Pearce and Hasluck in suburban Perth were among the four seats Labor wrestled from the Liberals in 2022.

“The evidence from the poll overnight doesn’t suggest those seats are likely to go back,” one Labor MP told The Australian Financial Review on Sunday.

“Most of the indications have been that the Labor position has held up pretty well, and last night reinforces that.”

Despite the Liberals and Nationals looking unlikely to win more than a dozen lower house seats, federal Nationals senator Bridget McKenzie insisted there were promising signs for the Coalition ahead of the federal election.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton said the result was “mixed”, noting a 20 per cent swing to the Liberal Party in the seat of Collie, where a Coalition federal government would build a nuclear power reactor.

“It’s a mixed bag across the rest of the seats,” he said. “But the lesson out of this is that we need to stand up for what’s in WA’s best interest, and that’s exactly what the Coalition does, and Anthony Albanese is deciding to support policies which really are about greens in inner city, Sydney and Melbourne, and against the interests of those in WA.”

Several WA Labor seats that fall within the federal electorate of Pearce absorbed 15 to 17 per cent swings towards the Liberal Party, but the incumbents were buffered by massive margins.

Federal Labor insiders have for months believed the party was in relatively good shape in WA, and Saturday’s result improved those expectations.

Labor’s pitch to voters on stability in government was also something federal colleagues believe resonated within WA, and could be applied more widely.

“So much of the state messaging was on the benefits of stability and the risk of change,” a second Labor MP said.

“There’s probably something to take away from that as well, in terms of how we as a Labor Party tackle Dutton in some of those more hand-to-hand combat seats on the east coast.”

A senior Labor MP said the result was “exceptionally strong” for the party in the west and would help build confidence ahead of the federal election due on or before May 17.

“The Libs have nothing to rebuild with. Nothing,” they said. “Having Labor people on the ground makes a difference. You need people to show up for the federal election and actually help share your message.”

The MP said there was no sense Albanese was delaying the federal poll unnecessarily. “It doesn’t look like we’re playing for time.”

State Liberal leader Libby Mettam’s future was cast into doubt by the loss, as her probable replacement, Perth Lord Mayor Basil Zempilas, narrowly won the seat of Churchlands.

On Sunday, she refused to speculate on her future but described it as being in the hands of her colleagues.

Unexpected resounding victory

While Labor’s win had been all but assured because of the majority secured in 2021, Labor had been bracing for heavier losses from an expected double-digit swing against its primary vote.

Talbot Mills Research’s David Talbot said WA Labor’s win was even more impressive because of the global trend against incumbent governments.

“WA Labor’s win was impressive in size and scale, but to buck the global democratic trend against incumbents was quite remarkable,” he said.

“The Labor government was seen as competent and given credit for successfully managing the WA economy to be the strongest in the country. The Labor campaign was successful in making that a clear contrast for voters.”